The hottest manufacturing industry is difficult to

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It is difficult to make money in the manufacturing industry. Can we still consider transformation

Abstract: when looking forward to "what is the future of China's manufacturing industry", 69.7% of the surveyed enterprises still chose to "make efforts to reach a new level", and 87.88% of the enterprises said that "they have never considered exiting the real economy". "The real economy is like our body. The weather may be bad and the environment may change, but if you insist on strengthening your body, you are not afraid of anything!"

recently, the people sent the main parts of the main engine to the processing center for processing to the eastern, central and western regions of China. They conducted an in-depth investigation on more than 100 entity enterprises in three provinces and six cities to understand the joys and sorrows of enterprise management, confirm the cold and warm of macroeconomic operation, and capture new phenomena and problems in the development of entity economy

"down" trend stopped

since the second half of last year, the overall business situation has stabilized, and more than 70% of the surveyed enterprises are optimistic about the business trend this year

"the most difficult period has basically survived" - most of the enterprises interviewed believe that since the second half of 2016, the overall business situation has stabilized, and the pressure on physical enterprises has eased

"finally out of the trough", Chu Junjian, head of Jiangsu Longteng optoelectronics project, sighed. The enterprise lost 800million yuan in 2012. At that time, "the cost was high, the loan was difficult, the products could not be sold, and the whole industry was losing money"

in the next few years, although Longteng optoelectronics tried every means to reduce costs, expand the market and engage in research and development, the difficult situation of operation has not fundamentally changed. Until 2016, the photovoltaic market has warmed up, and the enterprise has finally made a turnaround, achieving a profit of 400million yuan. This year, the profit is expected to reach 600million yuan

enterprises in the eastern region are the first to feel the warmth, and some enterprises in the central and western regions also feel better

"before 2013, the average annual growth rate of enterprise sales was as high as 35%, but from 2013 to 2016, no matter how the investment increased, the sales could not go up. In the first April of this year, the sales began to grow rapidly again, with a year-on-year increase of 20%, significantly better than previous years." Said he Jie, deputy general manager of Sichuan Guoguang agrochemical Co., Ltd

what is more rare is that some enterprises in traditional industries also have the experience of "stabilizing" and "sustaining"

"I have been struggling on the loss line for several consecutive years. Last year, I made a small profit, and the situation will be better this year. The 'downward' trend has basically stopped." Gan Ling, finance minister of Sichuan Pushi Ningjiang Machine Tool Co., Ltd., said

pushningjiang machine tool has been in trouble since 2009. "The whole machinery industry is almost the same. The market is weak and vicious competition. Both leading enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises are losing heavily. The old Changsha Machine Tool Plant has closed down, and we are able to survive," Gan Ling said. What makes the enterprise feel hopeful is that the order volume has come up, "In the first quarter of this year, several series of machine tool products were better. Orders were placed in October, and customers who did not pay had to go to the back row. This is the first time since 2009."

looking back at the operating conditions in the past year, 76% of the more than 100 enterprises interviewed said that the scale of revenue "increased significantly" or "increased slightly"

looking at the forecast for 2017, more than 70% of the surveyed enterprises are bullish on the business trend. At the same time, more than half of the surveyed enterprises revealed that they would "slightly expand investment" this year

"steady" does not mean "walk well"

however, "steady" does not mean "walk well". "With the improvement of the market, SEI will not be the same as it will continue to be warm, and there may be repetition" - most of the enterprises interviewed hold this view

"now, the real economy is the first to be affected by deleveraging and capital collection. We are not optimistic about the second half of the year, and steel prices may fall." Said liulihua, vice president of Farson Hongsheng group

jianghuajun, CEO of Far East smart energy, also believes that "the business difficulties have not ended." In his view, the deep-seated contradictions in many industries have not been resolved, and the task of supply side structural reform is still very heavy

some enterprises not only expressed uncertainty about the economic trend in the second half of this year, but also dared not be too optimistic about the economic prospects in the next two years

"the situation this year is better than last year, at least there will be no loss, but it is hard to say next year", said Han Dong, general manager of Sichuan fiberglass Group Co., Ltd. From 2013 to 2016, Sichuan fiberglass lost money for four consecutive years. At the end of last year, it was obvious that the market began to pick up, and it was expected to make a profit of 80million yuan this year. But Han Dong was worried about the future, "it is likely that the market will decline again in the second half of this year. The situation of overcapacity and insufficient demand in the glass fiber industry has not been fundamentally changed. After the price has rebounded, many small enterprises that should have quit at the end of last year have come back to life, and many newly developed kilns will be used again, which is likely to cause the second wave of overcapacity."

Wen Jing, deputy general manager of Chengdu Jiafa Antai Technology Co., Ltd., judged that "the difficult days may take another year or two, and the formulation of policies and the manifestation of effects will take some time."

of the more than 100 enterprises interviewed, 11.11% believed that "the most difficult period of the real economy has completely passed", 51.52% believed that "the most difficult period of the real economy has basically passed, but the situation will be repeated", and 37.37% believed that "the difficulties are still continuing"

why do you worry about repetition

why do most enterprises think that "the most difficult period of the real economy is basically over" while thinking that "there will be repetition"? What are the main reasons for entrepreneurs' concerns

-- it will take time to digest excess capacity

Yang Xiaoqin, chief engineer of Hubei Yihua group, and Yao Dinggui, deputy general manager of sanning Chemical Co., Ltd., believe that excess capacity is the main reason that hinders the improvement of the chemical industry. "The domestic urea production capacity is 80million tons. In fact, the demand for urea, including exports, is more than 60 million tons." "There are probably more than 15 million tons of excess capacity in nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers, leading to low-cost dumping. Coupled with the resumption of value-added tax in the fertilizer industry and the cancellation of preferential electricity prices, many small enterprises were in a state of loss last year."

Wang Qianjin, deputy general manager of CSSC Chengxi shipbuilding and Repairing Co., Ltd., said that at present, there is still more than 30% excess capacity in the industry. "There are two points of gross profit left in building a ship. There are so many subordinate enterprises of China shipbuilding industry, except for a few enterprises that have a large relationship with military products, civilian ship enterprises generally suffer losses and are under great pressure."

even enterprises in emerging industries and high-tech industries, and even industry leaders, are deeply touched by the excessive competition caused by overcapacity. "At that time, we were short of cores and screens. After the LCD production line was put into operation in 2009, the annual output value of the enterprise climbed all the way to nearly 5billion yuan. However, in 2013, the industry had overcapacity, the price was halved, and the output value of the enterprise fell to more than a billion yuan." According to the person in charge of an electronic enterprise in Chengdu, it took two to three years for the enterprise to turn from large and small batches to multi batch and small batch markets, and then the output value recovered

-- the capital bottleneck has blocked the lifeline of enterprises

under the downward pressure of the economy, some banks' loan interruption and loan withdrawal have almost become the "fatal blow" that crushed the real economy, especially the traditional manufacturing industry. In the survey, "solving the problem of capital withdrawal and loan tightening" is the policy that enterprises believe is most in urgent need of adjustment at present

"no matter you live or die, the bank is basically 'one size fits all' for the chemical fiber industry, but we all have a say in the world." Qiu Guoquan, executive deputy general manager of Jiangsu Shenjiu Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., said that last year, the enterprise resisted the pressure and managed to turn losses into profits. As a result, in the first quarter of this year, the bank received more loans, and the enterprise obviously felt financial pressure. "The sub branches and branches in Taicang and Suzhou all think we are good, but their superior organizations' cut across the board 'to the industry. In fact, although the industry has excess capacity, Oshkosh factory initially had five employees who made money and also had high-end products, which should be treated differently."

-- the demand is weak, and the price of industrial products is still low.

nearly 30% of the surveyed enterprises are worried about the sluggish market demand. Wang Jinlu, deputy general manager of Wuxi turbine blade Co., Ltd., said that in recent years, the price reduction of customers has become more and more intense, and the pressure transmission of main engine plants has led to the increasingly thin profits of supporting suppliers. This year, Siemens proposed to reduce the price by 20%, while Alstom and general electric both proposed to reduce the price by 18% - 20%. "Although the sales in the first quarter of this year increased by 15% year-on-year, which is the best start in recent years, it can be predicted that the business situation faced by the enterprise in the next three to five years is still very serious."

-- what most affects the confidence of manufacturing enterprises is "it is difficult for industry to make money"

although the state has issued a series of policies to guide the flow of funds to industry in recent years, enterprises generally reflect that "disenchantment from reality to emptiness" is still serious, especially manufacturing enterprises are facing greater squeeze from the virtual economy

"in terms of making money, finance ranks first, real estate ranks second, and then the real economy, and manufacturing is the most difficult to make money in the real economy." Liu Lihua said. While engaging in the manufacturing of special optical fibers and machinery, Farson has also begun to get involved in the financial field in the past two years. He made a comparison: the financial leasing sector, which has only carried out for two years, has a total of 40 employees, with a revenue of 250million yuan last year; Developing a new optical fiber product, from research and development to production and then to making money, takes about a 10-year cycle, which is recognized by the market, and it is difficult to achieve a revenue of 250million yuan a year

many enterprise leaders said that the manufacturing industry has the characteristics of large initial investment, long investment cycle and thin profit. In recent years, the profitability of the financial industry is significantly better than that of real enterprises, forming a vicious circle to a certain extent: capital pursues profits, and less and less enters the manufacturing field; Without funds, manufacturing enterprises are becoming more and more difficult to operate, and their enthusiasm for production is getting lower and lower

"it is better to start a factory than to speculate in real estate", which also interferes with real enterprises. Some entrepreneurs lament that it is difficult to open a factory, such as approval, loan, land acquisition, recruitment, profit and payment collection. It is difficult everywhere. It is really easier to fry a house and make money quickly. "We will stick to industry, but real estate speculation to make money fast really hits everyone's enthusiasm." Said Yuan Xin, deputy general manager of Suzhou regote Intelligent Equipment Co., Ltd

the rapid rise in house prices also indirectly pushed up the cost of manufacturing enterprises. On the one hand, the outflow of funds from the manufacturing industry increases the financing cost of enterprises. On the other hand, the rising housing prices affect the labor costs of enterprises. Yuan Xin said that the housing price in Suzhou has nearly doubled since 2015, and the cost of buying a house for enterprise employees has increased, which will eventually be transferred to the labor cost of the enterprise

the rise in house prices also makes it more and more difficult for general manufacturing to develop in cities. The survey found that a large number of manufacturing enterprises have had to move out in recent years, or move into industrial parks, or go to suburban counties, and some simply move to other places. In addition to adding a large amount of relocation costs, the relocation of enterprises also indirectly raises the employment costs and logistics costs of enterprises

is there still room for transformation

in recent years, the state has been encouraging the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing enterprises. While dealing with business problems, are enterprises willing to seek breakthroughs in transformation and upgrading

in the survey, 68.42% of enterprises said that they were still "focusing on transformation and upgrading" in difficulties, hoping to achieve a breakthrough. Among them, some enterprises have tasted the benefits of transformation and upgrading

technological innovation

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